Mapblazer Wait-Time Forecast

Weekly wait-time predictions for 5 California theme parks, 30-minute resolution.

Stale input - forecast only Serving forecastAug 30 to Sep 06, 2026 Modelprophet_fleet Run20260822T203750Z Trained2026-08-22 20:39:07 UTC Published2026-08-30 21:49 UTC
7.0 min
MAE
11.5 min
RMSE
76.6 %
Within 10 min
13.6 %
Severe misses
1.2 min
Bias
10.3 min
High-wait MAE
7.8 min
Peak-hours MAE

Model comparison

Backtest on the held-out final 20 percent of history (78,110 observations). The serving model must beat the per-ride mean baseline.

ModelMAERMSEWithin 10 min %Severe miss %BiasHigh-wait MAEPeak MAE
prophet_fleet (serving)7.011.576.613.61.210.37.8
xgb_global8.312.971.817.63.812.19.4
xgb_local_fleet8.514.771.919.33.712.910.0
baseline_ride_mean9.514.564.523.51.014.49.1

Predicted vs actual, daily mean

Serving model backtest: mean wait across all rides per day. Hover for values.

ActualPredicted
01020Apr 15Apr 19Apr 22Apr 26Apr 30May 04May 07May 11ActualPredictedApr 15: Actual 9.3 min, Predicted 12.3 minApr 16: Actual 8.5 min, Predicted 13.0 minApr 17: Actual 13.6 min, Predicted 15.0 minApr 18: Actual 19.1 min, Predicted 18.8 minApr 19: Actual 14.1 min, Predicted 15.1 minApr 20: Actual 11.0 min, Predicted 14.6 minApr 21: Actual 12.4 min, Predicted 13.1 minApr 22: Actual 12.2 min, Predicted 12.6 minApr 23: Actual 12.5 min, Predicted 13.0 minApr 24: Actual 15.4 min, Predicted 15.0 minApr 25: Actual 20.0 min, Predicted 18.8 minApr 26: Actual 14.5 min, Predicted 15.1 minApr 27: Actual 11.4 min, Predicted 14.6 minApr 28: Actual 10.2 min, Predicted 13.1 minApr 29: Actual 11.6 min, Predicted 12.6 minApr 30: Actual 12.4 min, Predicted 12.9 minMay 01: Actual 15.3 min, Predicted 15.0 minMay 02: Actual 20.2 min, Predicted 18.9 minMay 03: Actual 15.0 min, Predicted 15.2 minMay 04: Actual 10.6 min, Predicted 14.6 minMay 05: Actual 13.2 min, Predicted 13.2 minMay 06: Actual 11.0 min, Predicted 12.7 minMay 07: Actual 11.9 min, Predicted 13.0 minMay 08: Actual 12.5 min, Predicted 15.1 minMay 09: Actual 17.6 min, Predicted 18.9 minMay 10: Actual 11.9 min, Predicted 15.2 minMay 11: Actual 14.3 min, Predicted 16.0 min
Data table
DateActual (min)Predicted (min)
Apr 159.312.3
Apr 168.513.0
Apr 1713.615.0
Apr 1819.118.8
Apr 1914.115.1
Apr 2011.014.6
Apr 2112.413.1
Apr 2212.212.6
Apr 2312.513.0
Apr 2415.415.0
Apr 2520.018.8
Apr 2614.515.1
Apr 2711.414.6
Apr 2810.213.1
Apr 2911.612.6
Apr 3012.412.9
May 0115.315.0
May 0220.218.9
May 0315.015.2
May 0410.614.6
May 0513.313.2
May 0611.012.7
May 0711.913.0
May 0812.515.1
May 0917.618.9
May 1011.915.2
May 1114.316.0

Backtest error distributions by model

Predicted minus actual on the held-out test set, minutes. Blue under-forecasts, red over-forecasts. Shared axes, so a wider spread means a genuinely worse model. The baseline predicts each ride's historical average wait, so the difference between its panel and the others is what the models actually learned.

prophet_fleet (serving)

MAE = 7.01 min | RMSE = 11.49

0k10k20k30kerror under to -40 min: 434 rows (0.6%)error -40 to -35 min: 201 rows (0.3%)error -35 to -30 min: 414 rows (0.5%)error -30 to -25 min: 614 rows (0.8%)error -25 to -20 min: 1,017 rows (1.3%)error -20 to -15 min: 1,692 rows (2.2%)error -15 to -10 min: 3,036 rows (3.9%)error -10 to -5 min: 5,292 rows (6.8%)error -5 to 0 min: 13,201 rows (16.9%)error 0 to 5 min: 32,844 rows (42.0%)error 5 to 10 min: 8,637 rows (11.1%)error 10 to 15 min: 4,519 rows (5.8%)error 15 to 20 min: 2,524 rows (3.2%)error 20 to 25 min: 1,579 rows (2.0%)error 25 to 30 min: 768 rows (1.0%)error 30 to 35 min: 488 rows (0.6%)error 35 to 40 min: 298 rows (0.4%)error 40 to over min: 552 rows (0.7%)-30-15+0+15+30

xgb_global

MAE = 8.26 min | RMSE = 12.88

0k10k20k30kerror under to -40 min: 332 rows (0.4%)error -40 to -35 min: 224 rows (0.3%)error -35 to -30 min: 294 rows (0.4%)error -30 to -25 min: 482 rows (0.6%)error -25 to -20 min: 759 rows (1.0%)error -20 to -15 min: 1,285 rows (1.6%)error -15 to -10 min: 2,083 rows (2.7%)error -10 to -5 min: 4,072 rows (5.2%)error -5 to 0 min: 9,792 rows (12.5%)error 0 to 5 min: 31,510 rows (40.3%)error 5 to 10 min: 10,773 rows (13.8%)error 10 to 15 min: 6,125 rows (7.8%)error 15 to 20 min: 3,667 rows (4.7%)error 20 to 25 min: 2,365 rows (3.0%)error 25 to 30 min: 1,798 rows (2.3%)error 30 to 35 min: 1,137 rows (1.5%)error 35 to 40 min: 594 rows (0.8%)error 40 to over min: 818 rows (1.0%)-30-15+0+15+30

xgb_local_fleet

MAE = 8.45 min | RMSE = 14.70

0k10k20k30kerror under to -40 min: 594 rows (0.8%)error -40 to -35 min: 293 rows (0.4%)error -35 to -30 min: 358 rows (0.5%)error -30 to -25 min: 566 rows (0.7%)error -25 to -20 min: 778 rows (1.0%)error -20 to -15 min: 1,210 rows (1.5%)error -15 to -10 min: 1,932 rows (2.5%)error -10 to -5 min: 3,611 rows (4.6%)error -5 to 0 min: 10,378 rows (13.3%)error 0 to 5 min: 34,719 rows (44.4%)error 5 to 10 min: 7,525 rows (9.6%)error 10 to 15 min: 4,907 rows (6.3%)error 15 to 20 min: 3,287 rows (4.2%)error 20 to 25 min: 2,418 rows (3.1%)error 25 to 30 min: 1,715 rows (2.2%)error 30 to 35 min: 1,201 rows (1.5%)error 35 to 40 min: 780 rows (1.0%)error 40 to over min: 1,838 rows (2.4%)-30-15+0+15+30

baseline_ride_mean (the floor every model must beat)

MAE = 9.51 min | RMSE = 14.46

0k10k20k30kerror under to -40 min: 1,024 rows (1.3%)error -40 to -35 min: 430 rows (0.6%)error -35 to -30 min: 699 rows (0.9%)error -30 to -25 min: 1,188 rows (1.5%)error -25 to -20 min: 1,701 rows (2.2%)error -20 to -15 min: 2,732 rows (3.5%)error -15 to -10 min: 4,080 rows (5.2%)error -10 to -5 min: 5,739 rows (7.3%)error -5 to 0 min: 11,628 rows (14.9%)error 0 to 5 min: 25,191 rows (32.3%)error 5 to 10 min: 7,813 rows (10.0%)error 10 to 15 min: 5,342 rows (6.8%)error 15 to 20 min: 5,287 rows (6.8%)error 20 to 25 min: 2,517 rows (3.2%)error 25 to 30 min: 1,096 rows (1.4%)error 30 to 35 min: 460 rows (0.6%)error 35 to 40 min: 678 rows (0.9%)error 40 to over min: 505 rows (0.6%)-30-15+0+15+30

Mean wait by local hour

The evening peak is the part a timezone mistake silently deletes.

ActualPredicted
0102008:0010:0012:0014:0017:0019:0021:0023:00ActualPredicted08:00: Actual 5.0 min, Predicted 5.0 min09:00: Actual 10.6 min, Predicted 11.2 min10:00: Actual 10.7 min, Predicted 12.1 min11:00: Actual 14.1 min, Predicted 15.5 min12:00: Actual 16.0 min, Predicted 17.9 min13:00: Actual 16.9 min, Predicted 18.9 min14:00: Actual 17.4 min, Predicted 18.8 min15:00: Actual 18.1 min, Predicted 19.0 min16:00: Actual 17.9 min, Predicted 19.3 min17:00: Actual 17.8 min, Predicted 18.8 min18:00: Actual 15.4 min, Predicted 16.9 min19:00: Actual 12.8 min, Predicted 14.0 min20:00: Actual 9.5 min, Predicted 10.8 min21:00: Actual 7.4 min, Predicted 8.2 min22:00: Actual 5.7 min, Predicted 7.7 min23:00: Actual 2.0 min, Predicted 4.0 min

Hardest rides to predict

Highest backtest MAE for the serving model. Long queues move in bursts.

X2X2 (Six Flags Magic Mountain): MAE 23.3 min over 573 test slots23.3Toy Story Midway Mania!Toy Story Midway Mania! (Disney California Adventure Park): MAE 20.4 min over 735 test slots20.4Guardians of the Galaxy - M…Guardians of the Galaxy - Mission: BREAKOUT! (Disney California Adventure Park): MAE 17.9 min over 735 test slots17.9Buzz Lightyear Astro Blaste…Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters (Disneyland): MAE 17.9 min over 839 test slots17.9Roger Rabbit's Car Toon SpinRoger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin (Disneyland): MAE 17.4 min over 839 test slots17.4Star Wars: Rise of the Resi…Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance (Disneyland): MAE 17.0 min over 839 test slots17.0Space MountainSpace Mountain (Disneyland): MAE 16.1 min over 839 test slots16.1Tiana's Bayou AdventureTiana's Bayou Adventure (Disneyland): MAE 16.1 min over 839 test slots16.1TatsuTatsu (Six Flags Magic Mountain): MAE 14.5 min over 574 test slots14.5IncredicoasterIncredicoaster (Disney California Adventure Park): MAE 13.0 min over 735 test slots13.0Jungle CruiseJungle Cruise (Disneyland): MAE 13.0 min over 839 test slots13.0GoliathGoliath (Six Flags Magic Mountain): MAE 12.6 min over 573 test slots12.6Grizzly River RunGrizzly River Run (Disney California Adventure Park): MAE 12.5 min over 735 test slots12.5West Coast RacersWest Coast Racers (Six Flags Magic Mountain): MAE 12.4 min over 573 test slots12.4CraZanityCraZanity (Six Flags Magic Mountain): MAE 12.4 min over 573 test slots12.4